pangu model
Potential Paradigm Shift in Hazard Risk Management: AI-Based Weather Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Hazards
Feng, Kairui, Xi, Dazhi, Ma, Wei, Wang, Cao, Li, Yuanlong, Chen, Xuanhong
The advents of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven models marks a paradigm shift in risk management strategies for meteorological hazards. This study specifically employs tropical cyclones (TCs) as a focal example. We engineer a perturbation-based method to produce ensemble forecasts using the advanced Pangu AI weather model. Unlike traditional approaches that often generate fewer than 20 scenarios from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations for one event, our method facilitates the rapid nature of AI-driven model to create thousands of scenarios. We offer open-source access to our model and evaluate its effectiveness through retrospective case studies of significant TC events: Hurricane Irma (2017), Typhoon Mangkhut (2018), and TC Debbie (2017), affecting regions across North America, East Asia, and Australia. Our findings indicate that the AI-generated ensemble forecasts align closely with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble predictions up to seven days prior to landfall. This approach could substantially enhance the effectiveness of weather forecast-driven risk analysis and management, providing unprecedented operational speed, user-friendliness, and global applicability.
Efficient Subseasonal Weather Forecast using Teleconnection-informed Transformers
Zhao, Shan, Xiong, Zhitong, Zhu, Xiao Xiang
Subseasonal forecasting, which is pivotal for agriculture, water resource management, and early warning of disasters, faces challenges due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have revolutionized weather forecasting by achieving competitive predictive skills to numerical models. However, training such foundation models requires thousands of GPU days, which causes substantial carbon emissions and limits their broader applicability. Moreover, ML models tend to fool the pixel-wise error scores by producing smoothed results which lack physical consistency and meteorological meaning. To deal with the aforementioned problems, we propose a teleconnection-informed transformer. Our architecture leverages the pretrained Pangu model to achieve good initial weights and integrates a teleconnection-informed temporal module to improve predictability in an extended temporal range. Remarkably, by adjusting 1.1% of the Pangu model's parameters, our method enhances predictability on four surface and five upper-level atmospheric variables at a two-week lead time. Furthermore, the teleconnection-filtered features improve the spatial granularity of outputs significantly, indicating their potential physical consistency. Our research underscores the importance of atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections in driving future weather conditions. Besides, it presents a resource-efficient pathway for researchers to leverage existing foundation models on versatile downstream tasks.
Psy-LLM: Scaling up Global Mental Health Psychological Services with AI-based Large Language Models
Lai, Tin, Shi, Yukun, Du, Zicong, Wu, Jiajie, Fu, Ken, Dou, Yichao, Wang, Ziqi
The demand for psychological counselling has grown significantly in recent years, particularly with the global outbreak of COVID-19, which has heightened the need for timely and professional mental health support. Online psychological counselling has emerged as the predominant mode of providing services in response to this demand. In this study, we propose the Psy-LLM framework, an AI-based assistive tool leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) for question-answering in psychological consultation settings to ease the demand for mental health professions. Our framework combines pre-trained LLMs with real-world professional Q\&A from psychologists and extensively crawled psychological articles. The Psy-LLM framework serves as a front-end tool for healthcare professionals, allowing them to provide immediate responses and mindfulness activities to alleviate patient stress. Additionally, it functions as a screening tool to identify urgent cases requiring further assistance. We evaluated the framework using intrinsic metrics, such as perplexity, and extrinsic evaluation metrics, with human participant assessments of response helpfulness, fluency, relevance, and logic. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the Psy-LLM framework in generating coherent and relevant answers to psychological questions. This article discusses the potential and limitations of using large language models to enhance mental health support through AI technologies.